Global trends in the development of aircraft manufacturing enterprises. Leaders of the aviation industry Aircraft market in the world

I have already noted that in 2015 Russia took first place in the world in the production of combat aircraft - see the data here:. Let’s now see how our “probable partners” are doing with this - in the States and Europe, data on them for 2014 is here:

The most popular in serial production last year in the West was the F-35, and the first aircraft was assembled outside the United States - in Italy

Let's look at the data:

USA

F-15 - 15 15 - 8 8 - 14 14 - 14 14 - 12 12

F-16 - 22 22 - 37 37 - 13 13 - 17 17 - 11 11

F-18 49 - 49 48 - 48 48 - 48 44 - 44 35 - 35

F-22 13 - 13 8 - 8 - - - - - - - - -

F-35 8 - 8 28 2 30 32 3 35 34 2 36 42 3 45

TOTAL: 70 37 107 84 47 131 80 30 110 78 33 111 77 26 103

Here you can also add several AC-130Js and the R-8 BPS produced for ourselves and India and note that the F-35 is still not a fully combat-ready fighter.
I would also like to note that the USA does not currently produce UBS - the competition for new machines is just getting underway...

The French Rafale has finally made its way onto the foreign market - orders have been received from Egypt and Qatar

EUROPE: 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

"yourself"export everything "yourself"export everything "yourself"export everything "yourself"export everything "yourself"export everything

"Gripen" - 12 12 - 6 6 - 6 6 - - - - - -

"Rafal" 11 - 11 11 - 11 11 - 11 11 - 11 5 6 11

"Typhoon" 38 10 48 40 - 40 54 10 64 28 12 40 28 12 40

TOTAL: 49 22 71 51 6 57 65 16 81 39 12 51 33 18 51

The table again does not include UBS production - MV.339, MV.346 (in Italy) and Hawk (in Britain, including aircraft kits for India) - about two dozen per year - I don’t have exact data.
We should expect an increase in the production of Rafales - due to the appearance of export orders - the first aircraft for Egypt were taken and slightly modified from those intended for the French Air Force.
In 2018, production of Gripenov will resume - this time a new generation.

There are no exact data for China, but we can assume that less than 100 combat aircraft were produced there per year.
Currently in serial production are:
- heavy bombers N-6K (development of Tu-16) - several aircraft are produced per year
- "5th generation" fighter J-20 - small-scale production started - several. units
- variants of Su-27/30/33 - J-11/15/16 - it is impossible to establish exactly the production volumes - several. dozens per year
- J-10 fighter (created on the basis of the Israeli closed project "Lavi" - similar to the previous one...
- JH-7 fighter-bomber/front-line bomber
- JF-17 fighter (deep modernization of the MiG-21) - aircraft kits for Pakistan - 16 units, this number should increase to 25 per year
- UBS JL-8/K-8 - actively exported, incl. aircraft kits for assembly in Pakistan
- UBS JL-9 (deep modernization of MiG-21U) - small-scale production
- UBS L-15 (supersonic based on the Yak-130) - small-scale production started
- BPS Y-8Q - BPS (based on a local copy of the An-12) - several. units per year

Besides:
South Korea produces and quite successfully sells its UBS/light fighter F/T-50 - about a dozen per year
India "tortures" its Tejas and Sitara UBS - no more than a dozen a year (in addition to the assembly of the Su-30 and Hawk UBS)
I mentioned Pakistan in the Chinese section
Iran is assembling something like the F-5 there - several pieces a year from various configurations
Brazil produces very good successfully sells the Super Tucano turboprop attack aircraft - a dozen, 2 per year (in addition, the similar Korean KT-1, American AT-802 and T-6 have strike variants - in general, you can bomb with the An-26, for example...)
Japan assembled R-1 BPS for 2-3

The American concern Boeing has raised its forecast for the growth of the new passenger aircraft. On Thursday in London the company presented its annual market forecast civil aviation(Current Market Outlook), estimating the total cost of new aircraft required at $5.2 trillion. The concern predicts demand for 36,770 new aircraft over the next 20 years. The previous forecast was about 35 thousand aircraft worth $4.8 trillion.

“This is a strong and stable market,” said VP of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. - Against the backdrop of the commissioning of new, more economical aircraft Air travel growth is being driven by customers who want the ability to fly wherever they want, whenever they want.”

Demand figures have been boosted this year by the single-aisle aircraft market, which is forecast to become the fastest-growing and most dynamic segment as low-cost airlines continue to enter the market. This segment will require 25,680 new aircraft at $2.56 trillion, representing 70% of projected demand.

“Given the stunning order and delivery forecast, we see 160-passenger aircraft as the core of the single-aisle market,” Tinseth said. - This market is undoubtedly gravitating towards this dimension, which allows you to combine operational efficiency with flexibility route network. The Next-Generation 737-800 and new 737 MAX 8 aircraft offer our customers the highest revenue potential in this category."

Boeing's main competitor, the European aircraft concern Airbus, is also betting on the narrow-body market. Sales of the flagship A321 model in the narrow-body aircraft segment increased by 20% and now account for about half of the total volume of narrow-body aircraft produced by the concern.

Demand for other types of aircraft will also increase. The forecast for sales in the regional airliner segment increased by 25%, to $100 billion, or 2,490 units. In 2013, the company forecast deliveries of regional jets at $80 billion, or 2,020 units.

Sales will also increase in the small wide-body and medium wide-body aircraft segments. At the same time, the number of orders in the segment of small wide-body aircraft, despite the growth in market volume, will decrease from 4,530 to 4,520 units.

Unlike the small and medium wide-body aircraft segment, the market for large wide-body aircraft with a passenger capacity of more than 400 seats will shrink, Boeing analysts predict. The concern expects a reduction in sales from $280 billion to $240 billion, and the total number of aircraft sold will be reduced from 760 to 620 units. According to Boeing estimates, the capacity of an average wide-body airliner for two aisles will increase by 20 seats in the next 20 years, and a narrow-body - by 10. Airplanes will become longer, aisles will become narrower, and the distances between seats will be reduced.

Over the next two decades, the market for new aircraft will gradually become more balanced with geographical point vision. At the same time, the main driver for market growth will be the Asia-Pacific region.

Over the next 20 years, the Asia-Pacific market, including China, will lead in the total number of aircraft supplied to the region. According to Boeing analysts, in 2033 the total size of the Asia-Pacific aircraft fleet will increase from the current 5,470 to 15,220 aircraft. The CIS market will also grow significantly. Over the next 20 years, the number of aircraft operating in the CIS will increase from 1,180 to 1,820 units.

The American aviation concern's immediate plans include the presentation of a new generation of the medium wide-body Boeing 787-9, which is 7 m longer than the current top model Dreamliner 787-8 and can accommodate 40 more passengers. The aircraft should be presented to the general public for the first time early next week at the Farnborough Air Show. Boeing's main competitor, Airbus, will also present a new long-haul aircraft, the A350, with deliveries scheduled to begin at the end of 2014.

had a beneficial effect on her aviation market. The demand for new aircraft has noticeably revived, since one of the main problems of airlines continues to be an outdated fleet of equipment. It is expected that in the coming years more than 1,000 aircraft of European and domestic production (including those produced in the CIS countries) will be purchased.

The leaders of world aircraft production (Airbus and Boeing) predict two types of development of air passenger transportation. According to the vision of Airbus specialists, a hub-and-spoke model (hubs and spokes) will be implemented, which essentially means the following. From regional airports, medium and small planes take passengers to a large hub, from where long-distance flights are carried out to similar centers around the world.

Boeing analysts see a different path of development, proposing a point-to-point model, that is, the passenger gets to their destination with minimal transfers. Both companies presented long-haul aircraft designs to the market that would enable the implementation of the proposed models for the development of air travel.

The Russian aviation market implements both models. The number of point-to-point flights will inevitably increase within the country, and international flights will be operated via hub-and-spoke. Already, the demand for wide-body aircraft is increasing, and the demand for long-distance international flights, according to experts, will grow over the next 15-18 years to 5% annually. Growing incomes of citizens, liberalization of transport laws and cheaper services will affect the domestic aviation market, which will also grow.

The situation now and the near future

As of today, there are about two hundred airlines operating in Russia. However, by 2025, a maximum of a couple of dozen of them will remain successful. Small regional companies continue to go bankrupt, since the majority of them consist of obsolete (still Soviet) aircraft received from them, which have practically exhausted their flight life. But such companies cannot afford to purchase new equipment, and will be forced to leave the aviation market.

Only large network airlines can count on success in the future. They still operate successfully today, have an established network of routes that are profitable and familiar to passengers, and have fleet renewal programs. Among the successful airlines that represent the country's aviation market are Aeroflot, S7, UTair, AiRUnion, Transaero and some others. The share of passenger traffic of each by 2020 will be at least 10 million people annually. It is possible that closely related companies may consolidate in the future, which will allow them to gain considerable advantages and profitably purchase new aircraft.

Already, the most successful airlines in Russia are abandoning the secondary aircraft market, along with the world's leading airlines, purchasing the latest developments from aircraft manufacturers. The only drawback for the aviation market and the domestic economy as a whole is that the Russian aviation industry will not be able to present a decent competitive aircraft for medium-haul flights in 10-12 years (with the possible exception of the Sukhoi SuperJet).

How the regional air transportation market will change

It is in the domestic aviation market for regional transportation that many experts see the future of aviation. Here the main competitor continues to be the railway: cheaper, simpler, no passport or face control required, no need for advance registration. However, it is expected that over time the price of air tickets will become closer to railway tickets and more affordable, and security measures will be tightened at train stations. Of course, even the rise in price train tickets will leave their positions 20-30% more profitable, but an absolute advantage railway will leave.

If taking the train is only slightly more convenient than going through security on a plane, and the ticket prices are comparable, then many passengers will ultimately prefer planes. Their undeniable advantage in the speed of travel to the desired location is undeniable. It is from this moment that air transportation by small aircraft over short distances will boost the Russian aviation market, when half-forgotten flights between neighboring cities and regions will return.

There is hope that the expected gigantic potential of the domestic air transportation market will prevent the authorities from handing it over to foreign carriers. Today they do not have access to the domestic Russian aviation market; there is an agreement at the intergovernmental level regulating air transportation between Russia and other countries. The number of flights is clearly recorded and even a specific carrier from the country is determined. The leading position is occupied by Aeroflot, which is assigned carrier powers on most foreign routes. However, after joining the WTO it will not be easy for him to maintain his position.

00:21 — REGNUM Revival of the military aviation industry

2014 was a record year for the Russian Air Force - pilots received 108 different aircraft at their disposal. In 2015, the pace of deliveries should remain at approximately the same level or increase slightly. In total, taking into account exports, at least 124 military aircraft were built. The number of helicopters produced is growing more slowly; in 2013 and 2014, approximately 300 helicopters were produced. As for civil aircraft production, the results here are noticeably more modest - 43 aircraft were produced, of which 38 aircraft were delivered to customers, and the rest will be delivered in 2015.

Is it a lot or a little? To do this, we need to dwell in more detail on each category of aviation products.

Military aircraft manufacturing

In 2014, the Russian Air Force received 24 Su-35S multirole fighters, 21 Su-30SM multirole fighters, 8 Su-30M2 fighters, 18 Su-34 front-line bombers, 10 Mig-29K/KUB carrier-based fighters, 20 Yak-130 combat trainers , surveillance aircraft Tu-214ON, four passenger aircraft An-148-100E, two cargo-passenger aircraft An-140-100. All listed aircraft respond modern requirements, many of them (especially the Su-30) have had huge success abroad. As already mentioned, the total number of military aircraft produced was at least 124 (the number of aircraft delivered abroad could not be accurately determined, so the number could be more - up to 150). Let's compare this figure with the number of combat aircraft produced in the 80s of the USSR, when the aviation industry was really strong. From 1983 to 1990, an average of 175 aircraft were produced each year, of which 110 were military. That is, the result achieved in 2014 fully corresponds to Soviet production rates, and this despite the fact that each new aircraft model (especially military) costs noticeably more than the previous one and requires more time to build.

And one more interesting point- today the Russian Federation has begun to take first place in the world in the production of combat aircraft, overtaking both China (which uses Russian engines on its aircraft) and the United States (no more than 100 aircraft in 2014). The United States is being let down by the development of the 5th generation fighter F-35, which is not going as smoothly as we would like. According to preliminary information, over the next 5 years the United States will produce 569 aircraft - 113 per year, along with export aircraft.

As for the prospects of the Russian Federation, within two years the 5th generation PAK FA fighters will go into mass production. As part of the State Armament Program for 2011-2020, the rate of aircraft production should remain approximately at the same level as in 2014. Work has begun on the creation of a promising strategic bomber PAK DA and a military transport aircraft PAK TA.

Another important area of ​​development of the Air Force is the modernization of the existing aircraft fleet. Already in 2015, 5 modernized Tu-160 and 9 Tu-22M3M strategic bombers will be received. These aircraft can now carry high-precision non-nuclear cruise and anti-ship missiles. By 2020, the Russian Air Force should have at least 700 modernized aircraft (while maintaining the current pace).

Civil aircraft industry

Here things are not so rosy. The main domestically produced passenger aircraft is the short-haul Sukhoi Superjet 100. It was produced in the amount of 34 units. At a stretch, transport aircraft purchased by law enforcement agencies can also be classified as civil aviation - 9 more An-148, An-140, Il-76 and Tu-214. Total 43 cars. In the 80s, the USSR produced 60-70 civil aircraft every year. But then there was the production of wide-body aircraft, the same Il-86/96. Now the model range is limited to only one single SSJ-100, the prospects of which on the market are not yet entirely clear. The MS-21, a medium-range aircraft from the UAC, is in development. There was information about the possible development of a wide-body aircraft project jointly with China. In any case, we are still very far from Europeans and Americans - the world market is still almost completely divided between two giants - Airbus and Boeing. In 2013, the first delivered 626 aircraft, and the second 648. The annual production of our UAC aircraft is only 6.8% of Airbus's production.

Helicopters

Let's get back to the positive again. In 2014, the Russian Helicopters holding company produced just over 300 aircraft, of which more than 100 were produced as part of the State Defense Order. In the USSR in the 80s, helicopter production was approximately 380 units per year - the figure is higher, but not dramatically, especially considering the shrinkage of the country itself and the production of more expensive and modern machines. In addition, there is a production of a certain number of rotorcraft outside of Russian Helicopters - up to 50 more helicopters per year. Russian Helicopters accounts for 14% of global sales. The line of the legendary Mi-8/17 is especially popular, which is still purchased even by the Pentagon for the Afghan army. The production of Ka-52, Mi-28 and Mi-35 attack helicopters is more than 70 units per year - first place in the world.

conclusions

1. We are witnessing a revival of the military aviation industry of the Russian Federation. Not only have Soviet production rates been achieved, but even the United States has been left behind.

2. Although the civil aircraft industry has begun to revive (a few years ago there were not even 20 aircraft produced per year), it is still insignificant on a global scale. The model range is extremely scarce and does not meet the needs of the Russian Federation. The main development prospect is cooperation with China, which will allow us to gain a huge Asian market.

3. Progress in helicopter manufacturing is very good. It is worth noting that even in the worst years, helicopter production rarely fell below 100 units per year. The Mi-8/17 line has always been popular abroad.

• Boeing's forecast for the next 20 years shows a 3.5 percent increase in aircraft demand over 2014.
• The narrowbody and small/medium widebody markets are leading the growth in terms of number and total value of aircraft

Boeing forecasts a need for 38,050 new aircraft over the next 20 years, up 3.5 percent from last year's forecast. The company today released its annual Current Market Outlook, estimating the total cost of new aircraft needed at $5.6 trillion.

“The commercial aircraft market remains strong and stable,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Looking ahead, we expect continued market growth and strong demand for new aircraft.”

By the end of the forecast period, the civil aircraft fleet will double, from 21,600 units in 2014 to 43,560 in 2034. The growth will come from 58 percent of the 38,050 aircraft delivered during the period. Height passenger transportation will continue and amount to about 4.9 percent annually, almost reaching the historical trend of 5 percent. Over 7 billion passengers will be transported by the end of the forecast period. Air cargo traffic will grow by approximately 4.7 percent annually.

The single-aisle aircraft market continues to lead growth and, as the largest segment, will require 26,730 aircraft over the next two decades. These aircraft are the backbone of the world's airline fleets, carrying up to 75 percent of passengers on more than 70 percent of civil aviation routes. The growth of this segment is due to the growth of low-cost airlines and traditional airlines in emerging markets.

“The Boeing 737-800 and the future 737 MAX 8 occupy a central position in the narrowbody segment,” Tinseth said. “These aircraft provide customers with the highest fuel efficiency, regularity and in-class performance.”

About 35 percent of single-aisle aircraft will be operated by low-cost airlines, Tinseth added: “Low-cost airlines will require aircraft that combine maximum profitability with the highest profit potential. With a 20 percent reduction in fuel burn, the 737 MAX 200 is the ideal aircraft for them.”

Boeing forecasts that the wide-body segment of the market will require 8,830 new aircraft. First of all, small wide-body aircraft with a passenger capacity of 200 to 300 seats, such as the 787-8 and 787-9 Dreamliner, will be in demand. This year's forecast continues to reflect a shift in demand from very large aircraft towards fuel-efficient new twin-engine aircraft such as the 787 and the new 777X.

While much of the need for new aircraft is still driven by airline growth, replacements will require a large number of aging ships, the number of which is constantly growing. Every year, 2 to 3 percent of the operating fleet will need to be updated.

“The 737 MAX, 777 and 787 are ideally positioned to take advantage of this wave of replacements,” Tinseth said.

The cargo market continues to strengthen and will require approximately 920 new aircraft over the 20-year period covered by the forecast.

“We have seen strong growth in the air cargo market over the past two years and expect this market to continue to grow,” Tinseth said. “This is great news for our cargo aircraft business, including the 767, 777 and 747-8.”

Boeing's annual market forecasts have the longest history and represent the most comprehensive analysis of the airline industry. The full report can be found at www.boeing.com/cmo.

Deliveries of new aircraft: 2015-2034

Over the next two decades, the Asian market, including China, will lead in total supply.